AAA issued its 2025 holiday travel forecast via press release on Monday and projects that 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period from Tuesday, Nov. 25 to Monday, Dec. 1.

This year’s domestic travel forecast includes an additional 1.6 million travelers compared to last Thanksgiving, setting a new overall record. Thanksgiving is the single busiest holiday for travel compared to Memorial Day and July 4.

“Thanksgiving travel numbers are always impressive because this holiday has become synonymous with heading out of town to spend time with loved ones,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories, whether it’s visiting extended family or meeting up with friends.”

Thanksgiving Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By car:

AAA projects at least 73 million people will travel by car, that’s nearly 90% of Thanksgiving travelers and an additional 1.3 million people on the road compared to last Thanksgiving. That number could end up being higher if some air travelers decide to drive instead of fly following recent flight cancellations.

For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Wednesday is expected to be the busiest pick-up day. The top 5 markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 15% cheaper this Thanksgiving compared to last year.

At the pump, drivers are paying about the same as last year, when the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.06 on Thanksgiving Day. Filling the tank is a good idea the night before a road trip since it’s one less thing to do on travel day. AAA also recommends checking your battery and tire pressure. Last Thanksgiving holiday period, AAA responded to nearly 600,000 emergency roadside assistance calls to help stranded drivers with issues like dead batteries, flat tires, and empty fuel tanks.

As drivers prepare to get behind the wheel, AAA and MADD remind travelers about the dangers of impaired driving. This time of year can be particularly deadly on the roads. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, from 2019 to 2023, the death toll in drunk-driving crashes during Thanksgiving festivities was 868, representing more than one-third (35%) of all fatalities in traffic crashes during that holiday period. Have a plan in place before Thanksgiving, and use a rideshare, designate a sober driver, or take public transit to ensure everyone’s safety.

By air:

According to AAA, 6 million U.S. travelers are expected to take domestic flights over the Thanksgiving holiday period, a 2% increase compared to 2024. That figure could end up being slightly lower as some air travelers make other plans following recent flight cancellations. The number of Thanksgiving air travelers over the past several years – with the exception of 2020 – has been between 5 and 6 million.

According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Thanksgiving trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $700 which is similar to last year. It’s cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, but the flight home is what drives up the ticket price since Sunday and Monday are the busiest return days. Some travelers shorten or extend their Thanksgiving trips to avoid flying on peak days.

By other modes:

Travel by other modes is expected to increase by 8.5% to nearly 2.5 million people. Those travelers are taking trips by bus, train and cruise. Buses and trains could see an uptick in last-minute bookings this year.

Cruising is building on its record post-pandemic growth. This year alone, AAA is projecting 20.7 million American cruise passengers. That number is even higher for 2026 with AAA forecasting 21.7 million U.S. travelers taking ocean cruises. Cruise vacations are appealing during Thanksgiving, especially to the Caribbean, because the weather is mild, the trip is paid in advance, and families can bring grandparents and kids, and everyone is entertained.

Best/worst times to drive and peak congestion

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon to be the most congested periods before Thanksgiving Day. Travelers returning home on Sunday should expect heavy traffic most of the day. For example, locally, travellers from Seattle to Bellingham via I-5 North on Tuesday, Nov. 25 at 6:45 p.m. can expect a 77% travel time increase to 3 hours and 22 minutes.

Thanksgiving holiday travel period

The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1, 2025. This Thanksgiving travel window was instituted starting in 2024. Historical results were calculated dating back to 2019 using the same seven-day period.

Travel tips

With Thanksgiving just over a week away and the holiday season in full swing, AAA Washington offered the following travel tips:

If you’re flying, get a ride to the airport, call a ride share/taxi, or take public transportation. Leaving your car at home is one less thing to worry about if your return flight gets cancelled or if you end up flying back home through a different airport.

There will certainly be Thanksgiving travelers who opt to drive instead of fly. In that case, already packed roads will be even more congested. The best piece of advice is to avoid the busiest Thanksgiving travel days, which are Tuesday, Wednesday, and Sunday.

Leave Monday – or even the weekend before – and return either Black Friday or the following week. People who have the flexibility to work remotely from their destinations would benefit from this.

The earlier in the day that you leave for a road trip, the better. Don’t wait until mid-morning or lunchtime to hit the road. Afternoon and evening hours are notoriously bad!

AAA recommends checking your battery, tires, and fluid. Don’t wait until you’re stuck in traffic to realize your car needs maintenance.

Remember to keep the same attitude of flexibility that we always need to have as we make travel arrangements, the importance of travel insurance, and the need for a careful review of refund policies as offered by the airlines.

Because travel insurance can be daunting, reach out to a travel agent who can walk you through policies and explain what is and isn’t covered.