By Bob Condotta
The Seattle Times
Not only did the Seahawks lose to the Rams Sunday, but so did just about every team Seattle needed help from to improve its playoff chances.
That trend continued into Monday as Atlanta held on to beat Tampa Bay, 24-21, which made it even harder for Seattle to get to the postseason.
In fact, one thing Atlanta’s win did is make crystal clear that the Seahawks have to win at Dallas Sunday or they are eliminated from the playoffs (and then also against Arizona at home the following Sunday. But first things first).
That was logically clear before Monday night. But Atlanta’s win Monday night eliminated the last (admittedly remote) chance that Seattle could make the playoffs at 9-7 (in which Atlanta was going to have to finish 8-8).
So, it’s win or bust Sunday in Dallas.
But any playoff chances of any kind got worse with Atlanta’s win. Consider that according to 538.c0m, Atlanta’s win dropped Seattle’s odds of making the playoffs to 10 percent, the lowest of the season for the Seahawks.
It would have been 20 percent had Atlanta lost and fallen to 8-6 and into a tie with Seattle, Detroit and Dallas.
Instead, the Falcons are now 9-5 and in sole possession of the fifth spot in the NFC playoff standings at the end of week 15.
Atlanta holds a head-to-head tiebreaker on Seattle and one of the scenarios for Seattle to make the playoffs involves the Falcons losing two of their final three games. Now, that’s two of two.
Should Seattle win its final two games and get to 10-6, then the Seahawks need one or more of the following things to happen to get to the post-season:
— Los Angeles to lose each of its final two games — at Tennessee and then home to the 49ers. That would give the Seahawks the NFC West title due to Seattle owning a better division record. And that would give Seattle a home game in the first weekend of the playoffs.
Or to earn a wildcard bid, Seattle needs to win its final two games and also needs:
— Atlanta to lose both of its final two games (at New Orleans, Carolina);
— And Detroit losing at least once (the Lions play at Cincinnati and host Green Bay).
In this scenario, Seattle would finish 10-6 and ahead of both Atlanta and Detroit and assured a playoff spot.
— OR Carolina to lose its last two (Tampa Bay, at Atlanta) OR New Orleans losing its last two (Atlanta, at Tampa Bay) along with Detroit losing at least once (and it may be worth reiterating that Seattle finishing 2-0 eliminates Dallas by giving the Cowboys a seventh loss).
In this scenario, Atlanta would win the NFC South and Seattle would get the other wild spot along with either Carolina or New Orleans.
Seattle needs Detroit to lose because the Lions own a tiebreaker on Seattle due to a better record in common games.
Here is how the playoff picture looks as of Monday night:
1, Philadelphia, 12-2
2, Minnesota, 11-3
3, Los Angeles, 10-4
4, New Orleans, 10-4 (Rams hold the tiebreaker on the Saints due to a head-to-head win)
5, Carolina, 10-4
6, Atlanta 9-5
7-8-9, Detroit, Seattle, Dallas 8-6 (Detroit wins the tiebreaker on both Seattle and Dallas due to a better conference record, and Seattle wins it over Dallas on higher strength of schedule).
What also happened Monday night is that Green Bay, which is 7-7, was eliminated, leaving seven teams battling for the final four spots (the Eagles and Vikings have each clinched playoff spots).
But to reiterate, nothing matters if Seattle doesn’t win its final two games. So worry about the rest of it at your own peril.
