By Rick Anderson

For the Grays Harbor News Group

On the morning of Nov. 4, more than 30 past and present school administrators, coaches and media members will assemble at the Washington Interscholastic Activities Association office in Renton to embark upon a shakedown cruise over uncharted waters.

In other words, they will be determining the immediate fate of state-bound football teams.

For the first time, the WIAA will establish first-round football playoff pairings through seeding committees.

A trio of 12-person committees have been formed, with each responsible for determining opening-round match-ups for two classifications apiece. One committee will seed teams for the 4A and 3A classifications, a second for the 2A and 1A classes and a third for the 2B and 1B divisions.

Not even committee members know what to expect.

“We’re all kind of walking through the park on this,” said former South Bend coach and current athletic director Tom Sanchez, a member of the 2B/1B committee. “The first time through is going to be entertaining.”

The committee seedings replace the WIAA’s long-standing bracket format in which state pairings were pre-determined by district (such as District IV No. 1 hosting District III No. 3). That format came under fire the past couple of years when some highly ranked state teams (such as Montesano and Connell in 2016) wound up drawing each other in the opening round.

In the wake of those incidents, most observers expected the bracket format to be replaced by some variation of the state RPI ranking system used to establish regional basketball pairings. But the state football coaches association, among others, lobbied against the RPI plan.

“From what I heard, the RPI was rejected due to the (small) sample size you have in football,” said Montesano athletic director Tim Trimble. “Are nine games enough to set the rankings? In years past, when we were fairly dominant, I don’t think our RPI would have been that great, as most of the teams we played had poor records.”

The lone Twin Harbors representative on any of the committees, Sanchez debunks some myths about the new seeding process.

The committees, he said, will release only the pairings, but not rankings, following the meeting (although most discerning observers will be able to identify the top seeds).

League rivals (such as Hoquiam and Montesano or Raymond and Pe Ell-Willapa Valley) are prohibited from facing each other in the opening round. It is highly possible, however, that the first-round draw will feature match-ups from the same district (such as Hoquiam vs. Stevenson or Pe Ell-Willapa Valley vs. Onalaska).

Season records, strength of schedules and travel considerations will be among the factors the committees will ponder. Sanchez believes the top priority, however, is “to attempt to make sure the top seeds (have the opportunity) to advance as far as they can.”

As Sanchez is quick to acknowledge, there is considerable irony attached to that statement. Not even the top seed from its own league, the South Bend team he coached to the 2010 state 2B championship would have almost certainly received a low seed from a committee that year.

The committees will rely on input from three state-based online ranking services — Cascadia Preps, Evans Rankings and ScoreCzar. Representatives of ScoreCzar and Cascadia will participate on all three committees.

Obtaining a consensus from those services might be tricky. Unbeaten Hoquiam, for example, is rated third among state 1A teams by Evans Rankings but only 11th by ScoreCzar. Elma, a 14-13 loser to the Grizzlies earlier this month, ranks four notches higher than its Grays Harbor rival in one service — and 10 places lower in another.

Although playoff history is not included among the committees’ criteria, Sanchez conceded that teams with a tradition of postseason success might receive the benefit of the doubt in the seeding process.

“Hockinson won state 2A last year,” the South Bend athletic director observed. “But there’s no way they would have been seeded in the top four because of their state history, or lack thereof.”

One drawback to the new system is the short turnaround time between the announcement of the state draw and the opening-round games. That prevents teams from obtaining complete scouting packages on their initial opponents.

The WIAA addressed the issue recently by requiring teams (under the threat of coaching suspensions) to provide game films to their first playoff foes no later than 24 hours after the state brackets are announced. Veteran Montesano coach Terry Jensen, who prefers his own film crew to shoot future opponents, isn’t entirely mollified.

“To me, it is still a concern,” Jensen said. “Just exchanging with league members and crossover teams, you get huge differences in the quality of the film. On some, the view is too far away, you can’t even read the numbers of the players to know who they are or even see blocking schemes or assignments. Or it could be too tight a film and you don’t see all 22 (players). Or the crafty ones edit out certain plays. There will be issues.”

Although he said the old bracket format, warts and all, provided better scouting opportunities, Jensen is willing to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward the new system.

Hoquiam coach Jeremy McMillan is more optimistic that it is a change for the better.

“I think it is an improvement because there’s more of a human element to it,” McMillan said.

“I do know a lot of people on the committee. I don’t know if that helps us or hurts us,” he added with a laugh.

With his team already assured of a state berth by virtue of its Evergreen 1A League title, McMillan will be paying close attention to the committee deliberations on Nov. 4. He is urging Hoquiam fans, however, to scale back on pre-meeting speculation.

“The season we’re having, we’re going one week at a time anyway,” the HHS coach concluded.

UPDATE: Incorrect information was posted about the Columbia-White Salmon football program’s head coach in an earlier version of this article.