Republicans believe they have a good chance of winning back a seat in the Third Congressional District in Southwest Washington state.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican Joe Kent in November and earned a second term representing that district.

This week, state Sen. John Braun, R-Centralia, announced he will challenge Gluesenkamp Perez in the 2026 election.

“It’s a big decision, and I’m proud and I’m grateful for the opportunity to run in the Third Congressional District,” Braun told The Center Square. “It’s something we’ve been talking about for a long time. I’ve gotten a lot of support from inside the district, and from back in D.C. This is a seat that Republicans can run in and win. It’ll certainly change our lives in a meaningful way if we’re successful, but it’s a price worth paying if we can keep our country on a better track.”

A poll, conducted by Washington-based Voter Sciences LLC, asked a cross-section of registered voters from the Third Congressional District which candidate they would choose in a series of head-to-head election scenarios.

The results showed Braun and two other potential Republican challengers could all mount a successful challenge to the incumbent.

“Pitted against any of the three potential opponents with the highest name recognition — state Sen. John Braun, education reform advocate Heidi St. John, and state Rep. Jim Walsh — the incumbent congresswoman loses,” noted a Washington State Republican Party post on Facebook.

According to the poll results:

Braun vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: John Braun beats Gluesenkamp Perez 48% to 418% with 118% undecided.

St. John vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Heidi St. John beats Gluesenkamp Perez 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.

Walsh vs. Gluesenkamp Perez: Jim Walsh beats Gluesenkamp Perez 49% to 42% with 10% undecided.

Washington State Republican Party Director Matthew Frohlich noted, “This poll confirms with solid data what people who follow Washington politics already know: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is an extremely vulnerable congresswoman. Voters in the district prefer any of the most likely potential challengers to the weak incumbent.”

So far, only Braun has announced plans to challenge Gluesenkamp Perez.

“We’ve been talking about this really in earnest since the end of the legislative session, and it’s a big decision for the family, and it took a while to really work through the challenges … My kids are now grown and out adulting,” Braun said. “It’s also a big decision for our business, so we had to work through the details and see if we could really make this work. We came to the conclusion we could, and if we’re going to jump in, we had to do it sooner because there’s a lot of work to do to put ourselves in a position to win next year.”

Braun Northwest is a family-owned emergency vehicle manufacturer that serves fire, EMS and law enforcement agencies across the western United States.

Braun, the top Republican in the state Senate, said he has no plans to step down from that position despite running for Congress.

“I am not up for reelection in the state Senate until 2028, so I don’t plan to leave my state Senate seat,” he explained. “The caucus will ultimately decide whether I stay as leader or not. I’m not going to speak for them. If they’re supportive of me staying in the leader role, then I intend to do so, and if they think it’s better to go in a different direction, I certainly support that as well.”

Braun suggested his party is confident Republicans can win back the Third Congressional District seat.

“President Trump won this district in 2016, 2020 and 2024 pretty comfortably,” he noted. “So, there’s every reason to think that this is a seat that Republicans could win, and hold, and this is the time to do it. The longer we wait to challenge the incumbent, the tougher she’s going to be.

“I think I bring good credentials and the right understanding of the priorities, conservative priorities that broadly the district supports. They are a commonsense district that wants good government and wants someone who’s prepared to actually get work done.”

The Center Square contacted the Gluesenkamp Perez campaign for comment.

“When you speak to voters, they don’t want empty platitudes. They want opportunities for their kids, ample funding for law enforcement, and accountability from their representatives. That’s what Marie is focused on delivering,” Campaign Manager Tim Gowen emailed The Center Square. “John Braun’s right about one thing: Marie will be tough for him to beat, and it’s only going to get tougher for him as Marie gets more and more done for Southwest Washington.”