By Rick Anderson
For The Daily World
At the July 31 major league trading deadline last year, the Houston Astros added the final piece of what proved to be a world championship puzzle by acquiring pitching ace Justin Verlander from Detroit.
Although the deadline is some seven weeks away, unexpectedly giddy Seattle baseball fans can be excused for wondering if the Mariners will pull the trigger on a similar blockbuster deal this year.
The short answer is no.
The long answer is that I’d be surprised if it happened, but no more surprised than I am that the M’s are in a position where people care what they do at the deadline.
Given general manager Jerry Dipoto’s fondness for deals, the odds would appear to favor some type of transaction.
Yet in his two previous years at the helm, Dipoto has demonstrated uncharacteristic caution at the deadline.
In 2016, he sent a decent pitcher in Mike Montgomery to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for first baseman Daniel Vogelbach (a couple of minor leaguers were also involved). Montgomery wound up saving the deciding game of the Cubs’ historic World Series triumph. Vogelbach has thus far been a disappointment at the major league level.
Last year’s deadline deal initially made the Montgomery swap appear popular by comparison. Dipoto sent outfielder Tyler O’Neill, considered the organization’s top minor league prospect, to St. Louis in exchange for Marco Gonzales, a soft-tossing pitcher with a history of injuries,
Although Gonzales did very little down the stretch last year, the deal now looks like a good one. Gonzales has surprisingly emerged as one of the mainstays of Seattle’s starting rotation this season.
There are several reasons why deadline deals don’t fit into Dipoto’s playbook.
Seattle ownership is philosophically (and presumably financially) opposed to rent-a-player type acquisitions. Dipoto has repeatedly stated his preference for players who would remain under club control for at least a couple of seasons – the type that usually aren’t on the market at the trading deadline.
Most buyers in the deadline market surrender minor league prospects. But Seattle’s farm system is widely regarded as the worst in baseball, making such trades unattractive to the sellers.
On the other hand, the M’s were only on the fringes of playoff contention in 2016 and 2017. This year, however, they are not only one of the leaders in the wild-card race but are battling Houston for the American League West title.
Even if they can end their 17-year playoff drought, however, the Mariners are not currently well-constructed for a deep postseason run. That’s why Dipoto might have to shift tactics and deal for a top-of-the-line starting pitcher and possibly another outfielder.
If there’s a common denominator among recent world championship teams, it is that they boast one pitching ace backed by at least two other quality starters.
The M’s may have the ace in talented but brittle southpaw James Paxton. The rest of their rotation — past-his-prime Felix Hernandez, the unproven Gonzales and journeymen Mike Leake and Wade LeBlanc — won’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of potential playoff opponents, although the latter three have far exceeded expectations thus far.
Aces such as Verlander don’t grow on trees and may be beyond Seattle’s financial capabilities.The M’s, however, might be able to land a quality No. 2 starter they can slot behind Paxton.
Seattle’s offensive needs revolve a situation perhaps unparalleled in baseball history. The Mariners are virtually guaranteed to have a different lineup in August than they do now — and a different lineup in October (if necessary) than they will in August.
That’s because All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano’s 80-game suspension for failing a test for performance-enhancing drugs will end in mid-August. He’ll presumably return to the lineup at that point, with Dee Gordon shifting from second back to center field.
Cano, however, is ineligible for postseason play. If Gordon returns to second base at that stage, that would leave the likes of Guillemo Heredia, Denard Span and Ben Gamel manning two of the outfield positions, All have their virtues, but none are the type of impact hitters a playoff team desires.
Much of this speculation is admittedly premature. Only now entering the tough part of their schedule, the Mariners’ early season success has been based on their ability to win one-run games —not to mention their perfect record (as of Sunday) in extra-inning contests. In the view of many authorities, that type of performance is unsustainable over the long haul.
Perhaps so, but it’s also easy for Mariners fans to see the glass half-full.
Designated hitter Nelson Cruz, battered by injuries, is just beginning to hit his stride. Such key players as third baseman Kyle Seager and first baseman Ryon Healy have under-performed at the plate and may be due for strong second halves (Seager has compensated with key hits and stellar defense),
Cano’s return, momentary as it might be, should also revitalize the attack. And the confidence the Mariners have gained in close games should carry over into the stretch drive.
In a year in which a backup quarterback engineers a Super Bowl triumph and an expansion team makes hockey’s Stanley Cup Final, nothing is impossible, particularly if timely reinforcements arrive.
