By Jared Peck

Lexington Herald-Leader

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Even before the original morning-line favorite scratched, many racing observers believed the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby to be almost anyone’s race.

A few days ago, trainer Bob Baffert, who has won five Derbys and two Triple Crowns, commented about how nice it was to come in with a horse that wasn’t the favorite because it seemed the pressure was on someone else.

But with Omaha Beach’s departure, Baffert wakes up Saturday morning with the new morning-line favorite, Game Winner at 9-2, and both second choices in Roadster and Improbable at 5-1.

Here are five things to look at as the race approaches.

Will the favorite’s reign end?

For the last six Derbys in a row, the horse who went off as the favorite has won the race.

It’s a trend Churchill Downs and Keeneland oddsmaker Mike Battaglia has dismissed as mere coincidence and, this year, with Omaha Beach out, we might finally see an upset, albeit, maybe a minor one.

When Battaglia reset the morning-line odds Wednesday night, Baffert’s Game Winner came out on top at 9-2 with his other two not far behind.

That leaves a lot of room for the numbers to change.

“When Baffert’s got three in the race —it happens all the time … People don’t know which Baffert horse should they bet on,” Battaglia said after Tuesday’s draw.

Battaglia’s job as morning-line oddsmaker is to set the initial odds as close to how the public will actually bet them at post time as he can. He’s been right on who the favorite will be 36 times in 45 years, last missing on Classic Empire in 2017 when Always Dreaming edged him on the tote board before beating everyone on the track.

The race-time favorite has won the Derby 52 out of 144 times. just over a third. Before the current string began, the favorite had won only four times between 1979 and 2011.

Baffert’s ‘powerhouse trio’

The Derby favorite Game Winner comes in as the winner of the first four races of his career, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs last November.

While he ran second to Omaha Beach in the Rebel Stakes and again to stable-mate Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby, Game Winner didn’t really have to press the issue in those races because his second in the Rebel on March 16 virtually assured his spot in the Kentucky Derby.

“Baffert has three major contenders, you could say a powerhouse trio … . The horse I think should be the favorite of the three and the whole race is Game Winner,” said James Scully, racing analyst for Brisnet.com and one of Churchill Downs’ on-air experts. “Because … Baffert always had a game plan (with him). He was never worried about (qualifying) points with Game Winner. He had 30 coming into the year (Todd Pletcher’s Spinoff qualified with 40).”

All of Baffert’s horses are Grade 1 stakes winners.

Roadster won the Santa Anita Derby and looked impressive rallying past Game Winner to the wire, but without that performance, he could have found himself as one of the “also-eligibles” this week.

Improbable has the same connections as last year’s Triple Crown winner Justify, minus jockey Mike Smith, and despite finishing second his last two times out, he’s put down triple-digit speed figures in four of his five races, second in the field only to Game Winner, who has five 100-plus marks.

“You look out there in the mornings and Roadster’s not big. He’s the smallest of them, but he’s real athletic and he looks really good out there. And he’s a gray,” Scully said. “Improbable is a big chestnut who reminds people of Justify because he has that white blaze on his face.”

The best of the rest

Scully has picked Tacitus (8-1) as his winner, and believes the Will Mott-trained colt and Jason Servis’ Maximum Security (8-1) will draw the most money as alternatives to Baffert’s horses.

Tacitus, Scully said, “can A: overcome trouble like he did in the Wood Memorial and B: he’s shown an extra gear. … He’s not a dead closer. He’s more of a mid-pack stalker type. And (jockey) Jose Ortiz is aggressive. … I’ve been real impressed by his gallops in the morning and his build. He’s built to relish a mile and a quarter.”

Maximum Security is one of only two horses to win on a muddy, sealed track and did so stalking the pace until the stretch, so he didn’t mind getting dirty.

“He checked a lot of boxes,” Servis said this week of Maximum Security, who, like Game Winner, is owned by Gary and Mary West. “He won a major prep —the Florida Derby; he won in the mud; he lay third and came off the pace; he’s undefeated; his mare is a half to Flat Out, who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup twice at a mile and a quarter. It doesn’t matter what you like or don’t like, he’s checking a lot of boxes.”

This year in the Herald-Leader survey of racing experts, eight horses were picked to win with the most votes going to Game Winner with five, followed by Improbable with four. For comparison, last year, roughly the same group picked six different horses to win with Justify getting six win votes.

Hit that sweet trifecta

Even if the favorite and his short odds comes in first on Saturday, there’s often a longer shot on the board who can really make an exacta or trifecta box pay off.

War of Will (15-1) will be looking to get out fast and avoid getting buried in mud coming out of the inside post position. The Mark Casse-trained colt won his first race at Churchill Downs in the mud and even if he’s buried, Looking at Lee came through the field along the rail in the mud to finish second in 2017.

By My Standards (15-1) has impressed morning works observers this week and has a Kentucky native owner in Chester Thomas who along with trainer Bret Calhoun is making his first Derby appearance.

Tax (20-1), trained by Danny Gargan, finished second to Tacitus in the Wood Memorial, but has three 100-plus speed numbers in five races, making him a threat to hit the board.

There are two 12-1 shots with Win Win Win, second most recently in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, and Code of Honor, winner of the Fountain of Youth.

Two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has two 30-1 shots in Spinoff and Cutting Humor. He also picked up Triple Crown-winning jockey Mike Smith on Friday for Cutting Humor after Omaha Beach scratched.

“I think there’s not a lot of separation between the top contenders and the middle tier,” Scully said. “I look at that middle tier and By My Standards, Code of Honor, Tax and others are not that far behind. It makes for a better betting race.”

Anything can happen

Winning as a 50-1 shot isn’t unprecedented. It’s also not likely, but, hey, go for it.

Giacomo (2005) and Mine That Bird (2009) both won the Derby as 50-1 shots, making them tied for the second longest-shot winners in race history. Donerail (1913) holds the record at 91-1.

This year’s morning line 50-1’s are Master Fencer out of Japan and Gray Magician who last ran second at the UAE Derby in Dubai.

Experts don’t give either much credence, owing a great deal to the long travel time and short turnaround each faced to get here.

Last year, Mendelssohn came in off an impressive UAE Derby win as a hot pick to take the roses at 6-1 odds. He finished last.