WASHINGTON, D.C. — Washington’s Democratic primary matters because Bernie Sanders is under strong pressure to do well in the state, the most liberal of the six states holding nominating contests next Tuesday.
The Vermont senator is now battling in what’s essentially a head-to-head duel with former Vice President Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination. Michael Bloomberg dropped out after a poor showing in Super Tuesday voting and Elizabeth Warren dropped out on Thursday.
Sanders’ strength is with liberals and younger voters — and the West. Biden so far has not won a state west of Texas.
Washington is classic Sanders territory.
“Washington’s primary will be a referendum on the extent to which the most liberal wing of the Democratic Party supports a socialist candidate,” said Benjamin Brunjes, assistant professor of political science at the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Washington.
But that promise could also prove a problem for Sanders. Eke out a victory, or lose, and the political obituaries will begin.
“It’s all about expectations,” said Mark Stephan, associate professor of political science at Washington State University’s Vancouver campus.
Brunjes said Wednesday that if Sanders can win more than 50% he would have a clear mandate from liberal voters to keep pushing for the Democratic presidential nomination.
But, Brunjes said, “as is more likely, if he receives less than 50% of the vote, it will be evidence that, even in one of the nation’s more liberal states, Democrats are not ready to move away from policies rooted in capitalism and incremental change.”
Washington matters this year like it rarely has before. The primary is earlier than usual, and it comes on the same day as voting in Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi and North Dakota. Michigan is likely to get a big share of media attention, since it’s one of the nation’s most unpredictable states and offers 125 delegates, next Tuesday’s biggest haul.
Washington’s 89 delegates are the next biggest prize. More than 4.5 million registered voters in the state have received ballots that must be mailed back by Tuesday or dropped into an official ballot drop box by 8 p.m. that night. Typically about half the ballots are received on the Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday of election week.
Thirteen Democrats — listed alphabetically — are on the ballot. Though nine of the Democrats have left the race since the ballots were printed earlier this year, their votes will still be counted.
Expectations are high for Sanders. He was far ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden in the Crosscut/Elway Poll in mid-February, 21% to 10%, and that was before Sanders won a smashing victory in Nevada’s Feb. 22 caucus. He drew a raucous crowd of more than 17,000 people at the Tacoma Dome last month.
And Sanders has a popular, vocal advocate in Democratic U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal.
Washington is a microcosm of the country, she said, and a Sanders win would show he has broad appeal.
“I think Washington gets overlooked and underplayed quite a bit. I do think we reflect a number of different pieces of the electorate people don’t give us credit for,” she told McClatchy.
Other factors that could impact the race:
• The uncommitted delegate alternative. Voters can choose “uncommitted,” meaning they can send delegates to the Democrats’ July convention unpledged to any specific candidate.
Few, though, see Washington as an important broker should the convention become a free-for-all, a prospect that dimmed this week as major candidates left the race.
There are simply not enough such delegates, at least so far; Richard Berg-Andersson of The Green Papers, which tracks and analyzes the nominating process, said earlier this week no delegates represent “none of the above.”
• The mail-in factor. Before polls closed on Super Tuesday, 21.6% of Washington ballots had been received.
That may splinter the center-left Democratic vote. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minnesota, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and activist Tom Steyer are still on the ballot, but have dropped out of the race.
• The coronavirus factor. While mail-in ballots mean no one is going to polling places, concerns about the virus could make it harder for campaigns to hold momentum-building events.
While door-to-door campaigning was unlikely in a state with mail-in ballots, “it may affect rallies,” said Stephan.
“It does pose some real challenges. We’ve been doing a lot of elbow bumping in our office,” Jayapal said. “I do think we need to be thinking differently about where we go and how much we go out there.”
• The 15% factor. To get a convention delegate, a candidate has to win at least 15% of the vote. Fifty-eight delegates will be decided by votes in each of the state’s 10 congressional districts. The rest will be distributed statewide.
