By Debbie Cockrell
The News Tribune
How does the COVID-19 death rate compare with other causes over the past five years?
Looking at statewide data going back to 2015, COVID-19 is comparatively a runaway train compared with other causes such as flu, car accidents, shootings and opioid overdoses.
Here are questions and answers about how this year’s COVID-19 deaths compare with other causes of death, using data collected by the Washington state Department of Health and the Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department for comparisons.
How many people have died from COVID-19 so far in the state and Pierce County?
As of Nov. 29, there were 2,703 deaths COVID-19 deaths reported in Washington state, 231 of them in Pierce County.
How does COVID-19 compare with the top diseases causing deaths in Pierce County?
It could be in the top five by the end of the year.
Here are the top causes of death in previous years, according to local health department data (2019 and 2020 not yet available):
There’s no way COVID is taking more lives than the top causes of deaths per year statewide, right?
Not among the top two, (cancer and heart disease) statewide, but after that, depending on how the latter part of the current third surge plays out, COVID could easily make it into the top five statewide as well as in Pierce County.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates the state could see more than 3,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of the year.
Statewide, here are the totals for 2015-2018 for the 10 leading causes of death and all other deaths:
Flu always seems to be a big deal. What about this year?
Flu and pneumonia deaths in Washington state have topped 1,000 once since 2015, according to DOH data. Before that, you have to go back to 2003 for another other year that topped 1,000 statewide.
You can credit COVID prevention methods, including masks and the promotion of flu vaccinations, for helping to keep flu transmissions low so far this year. And by low, we mean there have been no lab-confirmed influenza deaths for the 2020-2021 season to date in the state. Also, no influenza-like illness outbreaks in long-term care facilities have been reported for the season to date, according to the state’s most recent influenza update Nov. 8-14.
Pierce County had 111 influenza/pneumonia deaths in 2018, the most recent year available in state data.
Well, that’s probably because they are lumping in flu with COVID case counts, right?
Wrong. According to a recent blog post from the local health department: ‘We do not count flu cases in our COVID-19 cases. A positive test only detects the specific genetic material of COVID-19. Neither flu nor cold produce positive test results. We track the flu separately.”
The department added: “As for flu cases, we’re early in the season and numbers remain low. We expect them to remain low because of COVID-19 precautions and an above average number of people getting flu shots. Last flu season (October 2019-April 2020), 14 people, including 2 children, died of flu.”
How does COVID-19 compare with car accidents, shootings and opioid overdoses?
COVID-19 is far ahead of all those categories. Full results for for 2015-2018 are listed below as provided by the state Department of Health. Motor vehicle crashes also include motorcyclists, pedal cyclist, occupant, pedestrian and unspecified:
With the delay in closing the investigations of these deaths, the state recommends when looking at 2020 data to consider only the first six months, which are closer to being complete. Numbers for 2019 and 2020 (first 6 months) are based on available data as of Nov. 23, according to DOH:
How do medical personnel determine whether COVID is the cause of death if someone already has another disease? Do they just flip a coin to pick?
First, “there isn’t a flipping of a coin,” said Ingrid Friberg, an epidemiologist with the Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department. “Most death certificates have multiple causes of death on them. And so you look at the overwhelming body of evidence to determine.”
Friberg says what is sought is the immediate cause, “which is the one that actually caused the death.”
“Given that we know that the changes in the lung … you can visualize a lung with COVID and say, ‘Oh, my gosh, that’s a totally different type of lung than for other diseases,’ I would assume that this will be relatively obvious to a provider.”
How long will it take to get an official COVID-19 death total for 2020?
“We haven’t actually done all of this coding yet because it takes time,” Friberg said. “Typically, death information comes nine months to a year after the fact. It takes some time to go through and clean it up, make sure that it’s right. And given that we’re dealing with a new disease, it’s probably going to take longer this year.”
