It would be easy to start fantasizing right now, wouldn’t it? It might be tempting for Washington fans to start shopping for dancing shoes.
The 10-3 Huskies have already won one more game than they did all last season under Lorenzo Romar.
Mike Hopkins’ debut has him looking like a Chris Petersen-like hire. The Dawgs lost Markelle Fultz — the No. 1 overall pick in last June’s NBA draft — and have still managed a double-digit win total through 13 games.
It’s exciting, no doubt. Just make sure to put restrictions on your imagination.
Hopkins is going to turn this program into a national contender one day. I’m just not sure it’s anywhere close to that yet.
Friday night, the Huskies entertained the 5,915 fans at Hec Ed in a manner they haven’t seen for a while. They held off Montana in a 66-63 victory, giving them eight wins in their past nine games.
As the arena emptied, a child said to his father “that was the best Huskies game I’ve ever seen,” and it’s nice to hear those kind of things. But while most in attendance were enjoying the highs, a more discerning eye likely noticed the holes.
For instance, Montana not only outrebounded the Huskies 41-27, it pulled down 20 offensive boards. Defensive rebounding is always going to be an issue for teams that play zone, but giving up one offensive rebound every two minutes is going to result in humiliation against a Pac-12 team. When Gonzaga pummeled Washington by 27 points, it also outrebounded the Huskies by 12. Virginia Tech got six more rebounds against UW in its 24-point victory last month.
Hopkins emphasizes how disruptive his bigs can be in what is a rather aggressive zone — but those bigs should be able to come down with the ball as well.
Other stats that jumped out Friday were Washington’s four assists and 18 turnovers. Most point guards shoot for the 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a model of efficiency. Well, the Huskies had a 2-to-9 assist-to-turnover ratio against Montana. They were able to play strong enough defense to make up for it — something the 12 steals and 11 blocks attested to — but as we saw last year, a stagnant offense is a recipe for defeat. And inconsistency on that end of the floor has been a theme this year for the Huskies.
Perhaps the main concern is how Washington has performed against truly talented teams. Sure, a 74-65 win over Kansas might have been the victory of the decade, and was a display of near-perfect basketball in Kansas City. However, those losses to Gonzaga and Virginia Tech revealed a vulnerability the Huskies’ record doesn’t indicate upon first glance.
To Washington’s credit, it has been able to pull out close games all year. In addition to Montana, the five-point win over Seattle U, the four-point win over Belmont and the two-point win over Loyola Marymount all reflect UW’s composure in the final minutes. Just remember — all of those losses would have been upsets, which should be a sign to temper expectations.
Having said that, junior point guard David Crisp said Tuesday that there is a chemistry and trust among this year’s team that just wasn’t there last season.
He added that there isn’t anybody on the squad just “looking to get theirs,” but that the victory is the No. 1 goal.
And if you look at the way Jaylen Nowell (16.9 ppg) has come in and led this team as a freshman, there is reason for hope. And if you see the way junior Noah Dickerson (15.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and sophomore Sam Timmins (6.2 ppg, 5.5 ppg) have improved since last year, there is reason for optimism. And if you noticed how freshman Hameir Wright came in Friday and tallied 11 points and four blocks, or how freshman Nahziah Carter was able to contribute eight points in 21 minutes, you’d be wide-eyed when thinking about the future.
Just remember to be patient in the meantime.
The Huskies open up Pac-12 play Friday against USC. And rest assured, they are prepared for the challenge.
But fans should be prepared for a bumpy conference schedule. Nobody wants to hear this about a team who hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since 2011, but this thing is going to take time.
