Seasonal climate outlook promising for drought-hit Northwest

Published 1:30 am Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Washington and parts of Oregon and Idaho should receive above-normal amounts of rain in October through December, bringing relief to drought-stricken areas, according to the National Weather Service’s seasonal forecast.

A La Nina is expected to move the Pacific jet stream northward, picking up moisture in the North Pacific before sliding south into the Northwest, the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center said Sept. 18. The La Nina has yet to form, but the weather service says there is a 71% chance it will this fall. Because of the shift in storm tracks, La Nina generally brings wetter and colder weather to the northern tier of the U.S. If it comes, the La Nina is expected to be weak and short.

Climate models predict sea-surface temperatures will cool just enough to trigger a La Nina, but not cool enough to make a strong one. The chances the La Nina will stick around into the new year are about fifty-fifty, according to the weather service.

By spring, sea-surface temperatures are expected to be back to normal. Most of the continental U.S., including parts of Oregon and Idaho, are expected to be warmer than normal in the fall and early winter. In Washington, the Idaho Panhandle, and parts of Western Oregon and northeast Oregon, seasonal temperatures are a tossup. Temperatures could be warmer, cooler or normal — the chances are equal, according to the weather service.

Later in the year, the temperature outlook for Washington changes. Below-normal temperatures are favored in Western Washington beginning around January. The weather service expects the cold to expand eastward into the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains and Minnesota.

Washington had its four-warmest and 12th-driest summer — June, July and August — in 131 years of record-keeping, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

All of Washington is in some level of drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported Sept. 18. Arizona and Utah are the only other Western states blanketed 100% by drought. Some 50% of Oregon is in a drought, while drought covers 85% of Idaho. Drought covers 39% of California. Drought conditions will improve by the end of the year, the weather service predicts.

Washington and parts of Oregon and Idaho should receive above-normal amounts of rain in October through December, bringing relief to drought-stricken areas, according to the National Weather Service’s seasonal forecast.

Although it’s not a given a La Nina will form, the signs are promising, Oregon State Climatologist Larry O’Neill said. Even a weak La Nina will tilt the odds toward a winter slightly wetter than normal, he said.

“You can definitely take some hope,” he said.

Oregon’s drought conditions have developed since last spring. April through August was the third-warmest and third-driest such five-month period on record.

“If we have a dry winter, the drought next year will be very severe,” O’Neill said.