You’ve got questions about the Seahawks and the playoffs? We’ve got answers

By Bob Condotta The Seattle Times • December 16, 2019 1:30 am
Seattle Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (54) intercepts a pass intended for Carolina Panthers wide receiver Chris Hogan (15) as defensive back Lano Hill (42) blocks him during the first half at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019. (David T. Foster III/Charlotte Observer/TNS)
Seattle Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (54) intercepts a pass intended for Carolina Panthers wide receiver Chris Hogan (15) as defensive back Lano Hill (42) blocks him during the first half at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019. (David T. Foster III/Charlotte Observer/TNS)

By Bob Condotta

The Seattle Times

The Seahawks answered one big question about their playoff fate with Sunday’s 30-24 win at Carolina. Specifically, they now know they will for sure be in the playoffs as the combination of that win and a loss by the Rams clinched a post-season berth for Seattle, the eighth in Pete Carroll’s 10 years as coach.

But much else about Seattle’s post-season fate remains unclear with two games remaining.

Here’s a little Q-and-A to try to sort it all out.

Q: Where do the Seahawks stand in the NFC playoff positioning right now and why?

A: A good weekend got better when the 49ers were upset by the Falcons, which meant that Seattle is again atop the NFC West (Seattle fell out of the top spot following its loss to the Rams last Sunday night) and for now is also the number one overall seed in the NFC and will stay that way heading into the week 16 regardless of what the Saints do Monday night against the Colts.

And that means that if the playoffs started today, Seattle would get a bye in the first round and then host either the Cowboys, 49ers or Vikings in the divisional playoff round the second weekend of January (Jan. 11 or 12). Those three teams would be the four, five and six seeds and would have to win in the wild card round Jan. 4-5 to advance — Seattle would host the lowest remaining seed of the three to win.

The key to Seattle holding the number one seed is its win over the 49ers, giving it the head-to-head tiebreaker on San Francisco (which is also 11-3) and that Seattle holds a tiebreaker on Green Bay thanks to a better record in common games (4-0 among the Eagles, 49ers, Vikings and Panthers — Green Bay lost to both the 49ers and Eagles).

Should the Saints win Monday night, it forces a three-team tie (with the 49ers relegated to the wild card spot).

And at that point the fact that the Saints beat Seattle becomes irrelevant since head-to-head wouldn’t apply because Green Bay and the Saints don’t play this year.

If Seattle, Green Bay and the Saints all win out and finish 13-3, then the Seahawks would be the number one seed heading into the playoffs.

But, should Green Bay lose one of its final two games (at the Vikings, at Detroit) and leave the Saints and Seahawks in a two-team tie, then head-to-head would take effect and New Orleans would get the number one seed and Seattle the two.

Q: So Seattle should now root for Green Bay to keep winning?

A: Yes, since as noted, if the Seahawks and Saints end up in a two-team tie atop the NFC, the nod goes to the Saints.

That also means you can still root for the Saints to lose — New Orleans finishes with the Colts tonight, and then at Tennessee (which remains smack in the race for the AFC South) and at Carolina (maybe not) — to potentially make moot New Orleans’ win over Seattle.

But what holding the tiebreaker on Green Bay means is that if Seattle wins out (beating Arizona this week and then the 49er), it is assured of being no worse than the number two seed in the NFC.

And THAT is what everyone means when they say that the Seahawks control their own destiny.

Q: Why is that so?

A: Because the biggest goal here for the Seahawks is to at least get a bye in the first round and a home game in the second.

Recall that the top four seeds go to the four division winners, with the next two going to the wild card teams.

But only the top two seeds get a bye and then a home game in the divisional round.

So for all the various things you will hear about playoff scenarios this week, that is what may be the easiest way to really think about this — if Seattle wins out, it gets at least the two seed, a bye and the a home game no matter what else happens.

Q: What are the other options for the Seahawks?

A: Seattle can still be the one, two, three, five or six seed in the NFC.

What the Seahawks can’t be is the four, which is assured of going to whichever of Dallas or the Eagles wins the NFC East (the two teams play this week).

Seattle could win the NFC West but fall to the three if it were to lose to Arizona this week but then beat the 49ers, which could drop the Seahawks behind the Saints and Green Bay.

And if Seattle loses one or two more games and does not win the division it can still be either the five or six.

Q: Can the Seahawks win the division WITHOUT beating the 49ers?

A: Yes, as laid out initially by 710 ESPN Seattle host Danny O’Neil, who noted that if the 49ers lost to the Rams at home Saturday night, then the Seahawks could win a tiebreaker on the 49ers even if San Francisco were to beat Seattle on Dec. 29 thanks to potential edges in both the strength-of-victory and strength-of-schedule tiebreakers.

But Seattle almost certainly wouldn’t know that going into the game, meaning, of course, the Seahawks will just go try to beat the 49ers and worry about it all later.

Also, this means Seattle cannot win the division this week even if it wins and the 49ers lose (which is also confirmed via the 538.com playoff projector).

Q: Anything else to know?

A: Well, as should be obvious, what Seattle would really love to have is the one seed, which would assure homefield throughout the playoffs.

Seattle has made the Super Bowl three times since entering the NFL in 1976. All three times were the only three teams the Seahawks entered the playoffs with he one seed, then won both home games to get to the Super Bowl.