Basic stats, comparative scores often deceptive

Going the Rounds — By Rick Anderson

Standard basketball statistical forms, such as those provided at college games, contain 10 categories and a couple of sub-categories.

Field-goal shooting usually is segregated between 2-point and 3-point attempts and offensive and defensive rebounds are often listed separately.

Another sub-category, this one specifying types of turnovers, might have unearthed one key to the outcomes in the Montesano-Elma girls basketball series this season.

The East County girls rivalry proved to be one of the most intriguing story lines in the recently concluded Twin Harbors prep basketball season.

Ranked among the top eight among Class 1A teams for much of the season, Elma finished with a 20-3 record. Two of those defeats, however, were to a Monte club that essentially re-booted its roster following extensive graduation losses.

Comparative scores, in this instance, have seldom been less meaningful.

In district competition, Elma beat Hoquiam by 49 points. Monte edged the Grizzlies by two. The Eagles took district champion La Center to the wire before falling by four. La Center had thumped the Bulldogs by 22 points in the semifinals.

Yet when the East County rivals collided for a third time this season (Elma won the second Evergreen 1A League meeting) in a winner-to-regionals, loser-out district game, Montesano prevailed, 46-30.

What makes that result even stranger is that one of Elma’s strengths seemingly dovetailed with Montesano’s biggest weakness.

The inexperienced Bulldogs struggled with turnovers throughout the campaign. The speedy Eagles habitually used turnovers to trigger their running game.

Without any statistical evidence to back up this contention, I suspect that many of Monte’s miscues in this series were of the clock-stopping variety (traveling violations, wild passes out of bounds, etc.). In the Bulldog games I covered, opponents often had to go the length of the court even following live-ball takeaways.

While chucking passes into the bleachers is never a positive development, dead-ball turnovers at least give the offender an opportunity to set its defense. Live-ball miscues such as backcourt steals generally lead to transition layins.

Whatever the reason, the Eagles didn’t convert turnovers into points as frequently as might have been expected. In the first league meeting in January, Monte forked it over 17 times in the first half alone, yet still pulled out a 45-37 victory.

I’m admittedly not the greatest authority on Montesano’s victories in the series. I covered only the game that Elma won and witnessed two quarters of the district contest before an extended power outage at Hoquiam Square Garden forced me to leave for another assignment.

There’s little doubt that there were several other factors in the outcomes.

Occasionally uncomfortable (by coach Lisa Johnson’s admission) in their half-court offense, the Eagles shot poorly against the Bulldogs.

Montesano did a nice job of getting back on defense — a traditional strength of Julie Graves-coached teams — and denying the taller Eagles second- and third-chance scoring opportunities.

What this year’s East County girls basketball series ultimately proved is that basic statistics are often deceptive. Almost as deceptive as comparative scores.

2B scheduling

If the Montesano-Elma series provided the season’s biggest on-court surprises, the site selections for the District IV Class 2B boys and girls tournaments earned that distinction for off-court decisions.

Not a single Twin Harbors team was assigned to Montesano’s Bo Griffith Memorial Gym for a co-ed quadrupleheader on the opening Saturday of district competition. While those teams were dispatched to Rochester’s smaller gym, such clubs as Toutle Lake, Morton-White Pass and Mossyrock made the long trek to Monte.

Two nights later, a Willapa Valley-North Beach boys game was mystifyingly scheduled for Chehalis when Monte’s gym was again available. Willapa Valley’s boys, in particular, were sent so far afield for district competition that they might have wound up in Walla Walla had they lasted longer in the tourney.

Tournament committee member Dennis Bower (who is retiring following a Hall of Fame coaching career at Onalaska) explained that longtime tourney director Rich Frazer used a point system based on a team’s finish in league play to determine site scheduling decisions.

Frazer, it should be noted, traditionally has done an admirable job in a generally thankless role. This year, however, he forgot that geographical concerns should always be paramount in site selections.

In an era of declining attendance at high school games, Rule No. 1 should be to schedule postseason games at locations that will attract a maximum audience. Class 1A tournament director Tim Trimble (also the Montesano athletic director) followed that rule when he shifted the Monte-Elma district girls game from Kelso to Hoquiam.

For the most part, that means assigning western teams to western sites and southern teams to southern locations. That may not be rocket science, but it seems to work more often than not.