According to initial findings of a study, current projections show Oregon and Washington could face a nearly 3 GW gap by 2030, or the equivalent of powering about 1.4 million homes.

Oregon and Washington are falling so far behind on upgrades to the electrical grid that the states could start seeing rolling blackouts during extreme weather as soon as next year, according to a preliminary analysis shared at a utility industry and regional power producers conference this month.

The findings are stark. By 2030, the gap between what the region is generating and what people need could reach 9 gigawatts — or the average amount consumed by the entire state of Oregon. As coal power plants go offline, data centers boot up, and more people switch to electric appliances and vehicles, the grid is strained and there’s not enough renewable energy projected to come online to fill the gap.

Because of that gap, the region will need to continue to rely on natural gas for longer than expected, the analysis found. But the region’s current natural gas pipelines are already nearing capacity. Gas companies may need to build more pipelines to fuel gas-fired power plants and keep Northwest lights on. The study has prompted some in the industry to say electric and gas utilities need to do more to plan appropriately and coordinate — especially during extreme weather conditions.

“But there are still things that can be done,” said Arne Olson, senior partner with Energy + Environmental Economics, known as E3, which conducted the study. The initial phase of the study was commissioned by 22 electric utilities across the region to look at energy resources in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and portions of Utah and Wyoming.

For Oregon and Washington, the gap between how much electricity will be needed in 2030 and how much will be generated is about 3 gigawatts, enough to power about 1.4 million homes, according to the study.

Starting next year, that could lead to planned and controlled shutdowns of power by utilities when demand is higher than available supply.

But Olsen said those rolling blackouts would happen only on very rare and extreme occasions, like the January 2024 ice storm that left tens of thousands without power. The risk is higher when extreme weather conditions happen at the same time as power generation is reduced due to low hydropower output from the Columbia River and with low wind and solar production.

Oregon Public Utility Commission Chair Letha Tawney said E3’s analysis clarifies the region’s resources and highlights where more attention is needed. The Oregon Public Utility Commission regulates electric and gas utilities in the state.

“It’s a question of, ‘Are the resources there in the hours that we need them?’ And the study really points to cold winter mornings as the key pinch point for Oregon to decarbonize,” she said.

Meeting these cold winter morning energy demands already presents multiple challenges.

The study says the region will have to continue to rely on natural gas until enough reliable renewable energy sources are added to the grid. But the region’s natural gas pipelines are already reaching capacity when the weather is extremely cold. Building out new natural gas plants could take four to five years. The industry has been hit by supply chain issues that could slow construction, and permitting and siting these projects could take years.

“I think it’s important to be really nuanced about how to meet the goals and where we might need to still rely on some gas, and as we layer in the long-term solutions,” Tawney said.

A strained grid leads to massive energy gaps

Oregon has seen a rapid rise in data centers as well as an increased use of electricity in homes and businesses. That has contributed to utilities reaching peak demand, when electricity use is at its highest, more often during extreme weather events. Coupled with the glacial pace at which new renewable energy is added to the electrical grid, the study finds the greater Northwest is not prepared for the rising power demand.

For the region to meet that demand, it would need to add four to five times more resources to the electric grid each year between 2026 through 2030 than it has ever done before.

“All the things that are necessary to make all this happen just don’t really exist in the Northwest at this scale,” Olsen said.

And renewable energy sources like wind, solar and batteries have so far made small contributions to meeting peak winter energy needs, according to the E3 analysis. That’s because those resources need sunshine or wind to generate energy, and aren’t always available.

Because of that, E3’s Olsen said, those resources are “marginally effective” in helping meet the region’s reliability needs.

“They provide a lot of energy, which is great to reduce fuel costs and to reduce emissions during most of the year, but when you need them the most, they won’t necessarily be there, and so the region is reliant on natural gas-fired power,” he said.

Until renewable energy sources can meet the region’s peak electric demand, natural gas should remain a source of power, especially for those cold winter mornings, according to the E3 study.

That could make the region’s electrical grid more reliable when demand surges, but it also brings the risk that electric bills could climb, Tawney said. Natural gas is a globally traded commodity, meaning ratepayers are subject to unexpected spikes. The Ukraine conflict, for instance, doubled its price, Tawney said.

“That has a massive impact on customer bills because customers pay for the fuel,” Tawney said. “There’s no profit margin on the fuel. It’s a straight pass through to customers.”

Better coordination between gas and electric utilities

One approach to keeping the lights on and addressing the looming gap between energy demand and supply would be to require gas and electric companies to plan and coordinate during severe weather events, energy industry leaders say.

Northwest Gas Association’s CEO Dan Kirschner said right now both gas and electric companies are operating at capacity levels during extreme weather conditions, and are becoming increasingly interdependent.

“The grid in our region is leaning more and more on the gas system to ensure reliable, adequate energy, and it leans on it more and more at the same time that the gas system is already delivering a huge tranche of energy to the region,” Kirschner said.

Gas relieves the strain on the electric grid in two ways when cold weather causes demand to peak: It is used to generate electricity when wind or solar can’t meet the demand, and it can heat homes and businesses as an alternative to electric heating.

Reliance on natural gas is something that both Oregon and Washington want to move away from. Both states have aggressive greenhouse gas reduction goals and aim to have their electric utilities be carbon-free by 2040, which will require moving away from generating with natural gas, a fossil fuel.

While both states have retired coal plants to meet their carbon reduction goals, they have not replaced all that lost generation with renewable energy or other sources, adding more strain to the grid.

Kirschner is calling on lawmakers to create some flexibility around state mandates on decarbonization – or ending the use of carbon-emitting fuels. Those mandates have often pushed for a move away from natural gas or gasoline to electric-powered home heating and vehicles.

“We should be thinking about this more broadly than simply electrification,” he said. “It’s ‘how do we actually decarbonize’, not electrify, because electrifying isn’t necessarily decarbonization. It will be eventually. But how do we get there, where we want to go, and in what time?”

Renewable energy advocate Nicole Hughes agrees that policymakers need to allow flexibility and gas and electric utilities need to coordinate. Hughes, the executive director of Renewable Northwest, said the electrical grid is headed into a period of scarcity. Because of that, the region needs to depend a little longer on natural gas to power our homes.

“We have been derelict at building energy infrastructure for so many years that we probably need to maintain the existing fleet of gas plants,” she said.

Hughes said her openness to keeping gas plants operating longer doesn’t change the long-term goal of transitioning to a carbon-neutral, renewable energy grid.

“It’s how we get there that might need to change, and we’re really excited to be a part of that conversation and work with the utilities,” Hughes said. “I think there’s a real risk if we all go into our separate silos and try to work out the problems by ourselves.”

Hughes said the region should be focusing on adding new renewable energy projects before shifting to more natural gas. But both states have struggled to add these renewable energy resources to the grid and President Donald Trump’s hostility to solar and wind energy has made pushes to bring renewable sources onto the power grid more challenging.

The Trump administration has cut hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding for renewable energy and climate action related projects, and tightened timelines for others.