By Josh Wingrove
Bloomberg News
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity has taken a hit from a series of scandals, was poised to win a second term in national elections with a reduced mandate that will force him to rely on other parties to govern.
Trudeau’s Liberal Party had won or was leading in 138 of Canada’s 338 electoral districts, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada and the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. Trudeau appeared unlikely to reach the 170 seats needed for a majority, meaning he would be forced to work with at least one opposition party on an issue-by-issue basis to stay in power. The most likely partner would be the pro-labor and anti-pipeline New Democratic Party, which is on track to win seats.
The weakened mandate will nonetheless come as a relief for Trudeau, 47, who entered the campaign wounded by a scandal over his handling of a judicial case for a Quebec engineering firm, and was further rocked by revelations he wore blackface at least three times when he was young.
The scandals weren’t enough to derail Trudeau’s campaign, which sought to portray the prime minister as the only real progressive option and to frame the election as an opportunity to consolidate his gains on climate change. Still, the Liberal seat projections are well off the 184 the party won in 2015, when Trudeau swept to power with a majority government.
The second term would allow the Liberal leader to cement one of the most left-leaning agendas the country has seen in at least a generation — progressive on social issues, willing to run deficits to tackle income disparities, assertive on climate change and fervently internationalist in an era of populism. The push to the left would be accelerated if the Liberals are forced to team up with the NDP, which campaigned on increased social programs, such as pharmacare and dental care.
The final voting stations closed at 10 p.m. Eastern time, and results were still coming in, but a stark regional divide in the election has emerged. The Conservatives —which has championed the oil sector — were on pace to finish second with at least 103 districts, with the bulk of those in the four western provinces. The Bloc Quebecois are on pace to finish with 32 districts. The New Democratic Party is on pace for 20 districts, making its biggest gains in lower mainland British Columbia, where opposition to pipelines is strongest.
The NDP is Trudeau’s most natural ally, though certain issues may prove to be flash points, such as his push to build the Trans Mountain pipeline, which would carry crude from Alberta to a port near Vancouver. Trudeau’s government bought the pipeline last year to save its expansion after the previous owner, Kinder Morgan Inc., walked away. The NDP is anti-pipeline, and wants more aggressive moves to combat climate change and higher taxes for companies and the wealthy.
The outcome however likely ensures the survival, for now, of a national carbon price, introduced by Trudeau. The Conservative Party had campaigned against the tax scheme, which also includes payments made to households as an offset.
