Mariners are playing like a bunch of All-Stars, but being named such not so easy

By Ryan Divish The Seattle Times • June 19, 2018 6:00 pm
Seattle Mariners closer Edwin Diaz, seen here in 2017 against Oakland, is considered a favorite to make the All-Star Game this season. (Ken Lambert/Seattle Times/TNS)
Seattle Mariners closer Edwin Diaz, seen here in 2017 against Oakland, is considered a favorite to make the All-Star Game this season. (Ken Lambert/Seattle Times/TNS)

Ryan Divish

The Seattle Times

NEW YORK — The second round of All-Star voting results for the American League will be released Tuesday morning.

With everything now done online, it’s easy for Major League Baseball to send out updates for the longtime popularity contest. Those updated voting numbers almost always lead to various reactions from fans — happiness, anger, resentment and motivation.

It’s a great way for MLB to get more traffic to its site as fans react to the results and feel the need to vote again and again.

For Mariners’ fans, prepare yourself to be frustrated when shortstop Jean Segura and outfielder Mitch Haniger don’t show up among the top names.

Remember this is a popularity contest and outside of the Pacific Northwest, Segura and Haniger are relatively unknown players despite their success this season.

In the voting update last week, Haniger ranked 13th among outfielders while Segura wasn’t in the top five shortstops.

So let’s forget about the voting process by the fans. The Mariners don’t seem likely to get a player voted in this season, despite the push from the organization on social media. To be fair, voting for Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts as the starting outfielders is beyond logical. Also voting for Manny Machado or Francisco Lindor as the starting shortstop isn’t wrong. It’s actually very right.

Obviously, one Mariners player will be selected by MLB rules, and they should have at least two, but it’s not impossible to have more.

Here’s a look at Seattle’s top four candidates:

Edwin Diaz, RHP

Of all the Mariners candidates, Diaz should be a lock. He’s been the most productive closer in MLB this season. He’s already racked up 27 saves in the Mariners’ 72 games with a 2.37 ERA. He’s been the solidifying force in Seattle’s bullpen. Only Kazu Sasaki saved more games before the All-Star break for the M’s with 29 in 2001.

Of his 27 saves, 17 have come in one-run games, the most in baseball.

But it’s more than just saves, he’s been a strikeout machine. He’s punched out 62 of the 146 batters he’s faced this season. That’s a strikeout rate of 42.5 percent. The 62 strikeouts are the most of any reliever in MLB. The Mariners actually are 30-0 in all of his save opportunities. In the three saves he did blow, his teammates found a way to come back and win the game.

Per FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement measure, only Milwaukee’s stellar lefty Josh Hader (2.1) has a higher value than Diaz, who is at 1.7.

If you were selecting relievers in the American League right now, the list is Diaz, Craig Kimbrel of the Red Sox, Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green of the Yankees, Blake Treinen of the A’s, and Hector Rondon and Chris Devenski of the Astros.

James Paxton, LHP

Even with his less-than-stellar outing Saturday against the Red Sox, Paxton should be one of the handful of starting pitchers chosen. The big left-hander has a 6-1 record with a 3.44 ERA in 15 starts, including two complete games and a no-hitter. In 912/3 innings pitched, Paxton has struck out 115 batters with just 26 walks. Paxton has a 2.5 WAR per FanGraphs, which is tied with Corey Kluber. Only five starters — Justin Verlander (3.5) and Garrett Cole (3.3) of the Astros, Trevor Bauer (2.9) of the Indians, Chris Sale (2.8) of the Red Sox and Luis Severino (3.7) of the Yankees — have a higher WAR. If you remove his first start of the season and his most recent start, Paxton’s ERA falls to 2.55.

The aforementioned starters, along with Jose Berrios of the Twins, are quality selections.

Jean Segura, SS

This position is absolutely stacked, and it might be the reason Segura doesn’t get selected. Machado led the voting in the last update, with Lindor second followed by Didi Gregorious of the Yankees, Carlos Correa of the Astros and Andrelton Simmons of the Angels.

While Gregorious got off to an unbelievable start, he’s cooled off considerably. He’s hitting .213 with a .598 on-base plus slugging percentage since May 1.

Simmons injured himself falling down the stairs of a dugout, so his candidacy is slipping.

Segura and Machado each have a 2.8 WAR, with Lindor leading the category at 3.7 and Simmons at 2.9.

Let’s do a comparison:

Segura: .340 batting average, .852 OPS, 52 runs scored, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, 44 RBI, 14 stolen bases.

Machado: .310 batting average, .945 OPS, 33 runs scored, 15 doubles, 18 homers, 53 RBI, 3 stolen bases.

Lindor: .289 batting average, 53 runs scored, 23 doubles, 16 homers, 37 RBI, 9 stolen bases.

Simmons: .318 batting average, .833 OBS, 33 runs scored, 12 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers, 34 RBI, 5 stolen bases.

The position is loaded, but Segura should make it.

Mitch Haniger, OF

Haniger’s overall numbers are solid. He’s hitting .279 with an .868 OPS with 36 runs scored, 11 doubles, 2 triples, 16 homers and 53 RBI in 71 games. He’s one of three players in MLB with at least 15 homers and 50 RBI.

Haniger has a 2.1 WAR per FanGraphs. The trio of starters Trout (6.1), Betts (4.1) and Aaron Judge (3.3) lead the metric with only three other true outfielders — Andrew Benintendi (3.0) of the Red Sox, Eddie Rosario (2.9) of the Twins and George Springer (2.3) of the Astros — ahead of him. Those seven outfielders are all worthy of selection.