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How to be prepared?
Wednesday, February 9, 2005 11:20 AM PST
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| DAILY WORLD / KATHY QUIGG A development at Pacific Beach includes homes at the edge of the surf line and homes on the hill overlooking the ocean. |
What would you do?
With your life on the line, would you know how to save yourself? Would your kids' teachers know what to do to protect them?
Though it's painful to even consider facing the kind of horrifying devastation victims of the Southeast Asian tsunami dealt with in December, experts say we can't bury our heads in the sand. With an earthquake-producing subduction zone some 70 miles off the coast of Washington and Oregon, we could be next. Better to plan now than when a 30-foot wave is speeding toward your family.
"Aberdeen and Hoquiam probably have more people at risk than any other place in Washington," said Brian Atwater, a U.S. Geological Survey geologist and tsunami expert. "... A key lesson from the Southeast Asian disaster is if people had known to run away, a lot would have been saved. This is a human warning called education."
On average, every 500 years a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake generates a massive tsunami that obliterates coastal areas. ("Tsunami" is a combination of two Japanese words: tsu means "harbor" and nami means "waves.")
According to physical evidence in North America and written records found in Japan, the last quake occurred on Jan. 26, 1700. Scientists say another could hit us at any time. People living directly on the coast might have just minutes to prepare before 30-foot waves pummel homes and destroy everything in their path.
People who evacuate quickly to high ground will survive. Those who don't will likely die.
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| DAILY WORLD / KEVIN HONG The Ocean Shores "tsunami stick" uses a flashing warning light and a loudspeaker that can be heard a mile away. |
"If you feel an earthquake, if you feel the earth shake, you should get to high ground," said Stephanie Fritts, Pacific County's E-911 and emergency management coordinator. "If you feel the earth move, you need to move. You don't have enough time to try to decide, 'Was that a strong earthquake or not a strong earthquake?' Then you need to listen to your NOAA radio or a local radio to get further information from your local emergency management office."
No high ground
The landscape, with high ground never very far away in most areas of the region, makes survival possible for most people living on the Twin Harbors. In Ocean Shores, however, there is no high ground. There's only one road out of the city, and if an earthquake leaves it impassable, people could literally be running for their lives.
"There's no place to go," said Tim Walsh, the geologic hazards program manager for the State Department of Natural Resources. "The whole peninsula is low-lying and the tsunamis would arrive in about half an hour after a magnitude 9 earthquake. ... It would be impossible to evacuate people from the south side of the Ocean Shores peninsula. It's seven miles to get to high ground."
Like all Twin Harbors schools, those in Ocean Shores have tsunami evacuation plans in place, but North Beach School Superintendent Stan Pinnick acknowledges that if time is limited and roads are destroyed, students may just have to stay put and hope for the best.
"We'll be in place looking for high ground," Pinnick said. "We're all in trouble at that point."
Ocean Shores is preparing to build a new elementary school on the same site as its current building. The district didn't seriously consider building the school outside of the city limits in a tsunami safe area, because "at this point the community basically wanted a neighborhood school," Pinnick said.
Partially in order to increase students' chances of survival, the district designed the new school with two levels, instead of the current one. The school, scheduled to open in September 2006, will also be built with sturdy materials, but Pinnick said he doubted it would meet "tsunami safe" standards being developed by the state government.
Like people everywhere, legislators have been especially attuned to tsunami dangers since the Asian disaster. They've introduced a slew of bills to increase disaster funding, fix broken warning buoys and install new ones off the coast and offer tax breaks to those willing to build "tsunami-proof" structures.
Experts say vertical evacuation structures may be the best hope Ocean Shores residents have. They could also be useful in Westport, Long Beach and other places where relatively large populations live on low-lying coastal land.
"There's just tons of things that we could do, but we're not because of the cost," said Jim Phipps, a retired Grays Harbor College instructor, with expertise in oceanography. "My really big thing is the site (of) the school. Why would you put a school in a tsunami zone? ... You just don't think it will happen. Stuff like that frustrates me. ...
"How well are we prepared? I guess the answer is 'Not as well as we should be.' "
Virtually useless
In a Cascadia subduction zone event, the speed of an incoming tsunami would make warning devices virtually useless along the coast, experts say.
But a tsunami could be generated by a distant quake, maybe one thousands of miles away, and sirens could save lives in those cases.
"A big Cascadia event will leave no doubt that this has happened," Atwater said. "There will be shaking in Aberdeen - and you will know. That will be your warning. You don't need anybody to tell you. The Earth has told you. If that clue isn't there then probably the next thing that would happen is that the water would draw down first. ... (There) is a distinction between the tsunamis that are made in your own backyard and a tsunami that comes from another part of the world. If a tsunami comes from Alaska, you'll have hours of time."
As soon as the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration receives word a tsunami is coming, a 40-foot tall $15,000 "tsunami-stick" in Ocean Shores should flash and blare warnings to people near the beach. But in August of 2003, when the stick was tested, it didn't work.
The warning device was returned for warranty repair and has since been reinstalled, according to Anne Sullivan, Grays Harbor County's emergency and risk manager. Emergency personnel will test it again some time this week, she said.
Westport confusion
In Westport, sirens operated by the Fire Department will blast a continuous warning tone throughout the city and along the South Beach if a tsunami is headed this way. However, the system has created some confusion among residents and tourists, since it is also used to notify volunteer firefighters of emergencies. While the volunteer notification signal will vary in intensity, the tsunami warning tone will wail continuously, according to Lt. Daryl Brown.
Taholah also has warning sirens and Sullivan said state agencies are working to get more installed along the coast.
Tsunami warnings would flash across television and radio broadcasts - and Pacific and Grays Harbor counties have telephonic warning systems. In Pacific County, everyone in danger is supposed to automatically receive a call. Grays Harbor has a similar system, but Sullivan said some people have inadvertently been left off the list. To make sure you're on the list, call 249-3911.
In both counties, it could take hours before everyone is reached.
Additionally, Sullivan and Fritts recommend that everyone living along the coast or near a harbor buy a NOAA radio. The radios cost around $40 and will turn on automatically if a tsunami is imminent.
"That is the individuals' first line of defense," Sullivan said.
Harborites should also review the Washington State Department of Natural Resources "inundation map," to see which areas are safe and which aren't. A more detailed evacuation map, due out any day, shows where people living in various towns should evacuate to, should a giant wave be headed their way. Once completed, the maps will be distributed to people living in tsunami danger areas.
Families and businesses should talk about tsunami dangers and have evacuation plans memorized, Sullivan and other experts say. Assuming roads are destroyed, kids should know how to escape and where to meet their parents if they become separated. Evacuation packs with 72 hours' worth of food, water and supplies should be ready to go at a moment's notice.
Though no laws require hotels and other tourist destinations to provide tsunami information to guests, Sullivan and Fritts say they should do so willingly. Likewise, nursing homes and juvenile detention centers in low-lying areas should prepare for tsunamis and have evacuation plans.
Most importantly, Atwater says, people must listen to the Earth. When it rumbles, you need to find high ground.
"You're likely to have 10 false alarms before you have a real one," he said, as he sat in Phipps' home, surrounded by tsunami literature.
Phipps interjected, "If you felt the Earth quake and you ran off the beach and someone else got your clams, who would be the stupid one and who'd be the smart one?"
Tsunamis have hit here in the past and they will again. But if you know the signs and have a plan, you can survive, Atwater said.
"I'm especially concerned about the way the tsunami has been portrayed as having no warning," Atwater said, referring to the Asian disaster. "It gives people a sense of helplessness. Fox News or NBC, they play up the sensational side but they don't tell people how to deal with it. These things are really survivable. There are some people who can't get out, but most people can.
"The challenge for our coast is to build this kind of awareness so that under what would be very bad circumstances, people can get themselves out of damaged houses to a safe place."
The ground shakes, buildings crumble and homes sink into the ground. A big wave is headed your way. This is no drill.
What will you do?
Kaitlin Manry, a Daily World writer, can be reached at 532-4000 ext. 130, or by e-mail at kmanry@thedailyworld.com.
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